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SEPTEMBER 22 , 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 37 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK
As PM Chuan Leekpai's government stumbles, tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra cruises By ROGER MITTON Bangkok ALSO: • 'I Have Time': Suwat on his PM prospects Let's not mess about. Thailand's dominant Democrat Party is almost certain to lose the general election that is likely in December. By year's end, Democrat chief Chuan Leekpai will have been replaced as prime minister by Thaksin Shinawatra, telecommunications tycoon and leader of the upstart Thai Rak Thai Party. The change will reverberate across the region as Chuan's consensual liberalism is dumped in favor of Thaksin's no-nonsense, CEO-style governance. It may not be a pleasant prospect to some, but Thaksin's ruthless single-mindedness may be just what flabby Thailand needs to boot its economy back into action. It may also be good for the Democrats, who could use a jolt of electricity to shock them out of their smug complacency. "The problem with the Democrats is that they're so full of themselves," says Chulalongkorn University's Pranee Thiparat. "They think that no matter what, people will perceive them as better than the others." No longer. When Chuan's Democrat-led government came to power nearly three years ago, it kickstarted an era of openness and change. But as reform gets to be almost taken for granted, Thais are clamoring for much more. Despite the momentum toward recovery, the baht is fragile and the stock market moribund. Investors are staying away pending the election outcome. Rising oil prices have not helped either. And a high-profile corruption scandal that forced out party secretary-general Sanan Kachornprasert has tarnished the Democrats' famed clean image. It all adds up to a picture, perhaps unfair, of the Chuan regime as worn-out and unable to sufficiently reinvigorate the Crisis-ravaged economy it inherited in late 1997. Already internal squabbling has broken out over the party's lackadaisical approach to the coming polls. Ministers have been heard discussing in private what they might do after the election, apparently conceding that they won't be returning to office. In a vain attempt to stay in power, the Democrats are trying to keep the present six-party coalition together through the election period. That way they may end up as a group with more seats in total than Thaksin's people. It's a long shot, and it means that the Democrats are more dependent on coalition allies, especially the increasingly powerful Suwat Liptapanlop, who controls Chart Pattana Party, the likely third-place finisher behind Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats. Suwat himself is quietly positioning himself for a run at the top spot should Thaksin self-destruct. Given Thaksin's notoriously thin-skinned, my-way-or-no-way ruling style, that is not an impossibility. Thai Rak Thai deputy leader Pitak Intrawityanunt dismisses this. "Thaksin is very mature now," he says. "He has a great deal of tolerance and understanding, much better than before." Besides, Suwat is a very astute and clinical politician with his eye on the main chance. If the election result confirms that the force is with Thaksin, then Suwat will be by his side in an instant. "Chart Pattana are more strategic," says Pranee. "They will go with whoever forms the government." Naturally, there has been speculation — hammered home almost daily in the local press — that Thaksin has used his immense personal wealth to help persuade a flood of MPs and former ministers from all the other parties to join him. Laments Democrat Alongkorn Ponlaboot: "After the reforms and the new Constitution of three years ago, who would have thought that money politics would increase not decrease?" Again Pitak scoffs: "There is no buying, definitely not. The people come to us because of the popularity of the party and Thaksin. They think they are going to win with us. And they are." Fine, but this time all candidates will need to be ultra-careful if they are thinking about any underhanded tactics. As Thailand's new Election Commission showed after the recent Senate polls, it is not afraid to rule against vote-buyers and other electoral miscreants, no matter how high-profile they are. Meantime, the prospect of a Thaksin government has everyone trying to figure out what it will mean in terms of policies. On the economic front, he has controversially vowed to give hard-pressed farmers debt relief for three years and to allocate every village in Thailand one million baht (about $24,260) to kickstart the rural economy. Cries Alongkorn: "Where is all this money coming from?" Counters Pitak: "We have done a lot of studies and we know we'll be able to allocate the budget for this policy." True or not, many admire Thaksin's willingness to explore new vistas. Says Pranee: "He's thinking all the time." Just as most Thais are starting to think about how life will be under the hard-driving Thaksin. One thing's for sure, if he doesn't cut the mustard, stealth candidate Suwat is poised to go for the top. Write to Asiaweek at mail@web.asiaweek.com
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