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CNN SHOWDOWN: IRAQ
Interview With Iraq Expert
Aired March 5, 2003 - 12:37 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is going to war with Iraq, at least possibly, and winning is not necessarily the big problem. Not counting Iraq's Republican Guards and reserve forces, the U.S. clearly has an overwhelming military capability. According to "Jane's," the Iraqi army's active army has about 350,000 troops, with many divisions under equipped.
Our guest today, retired U.S. Army Colonel Pat Lang, who is joining us now, he says war is likely to happen, but he's much more concerned about what happens afterwards, as opposed to what's going on during the actual war.
You and I -- I was covering the Pentagon before the last gulf war. You were the top Iraq specialist at the Pentagon then. Look at what the Iraqi military capability right now is. Tell our viewers what the likely outcome of this war, assuming it starts in the coming days, will be.
COL. PAT LANG, U.S. ARMY (RET.): I think you have to differentiate between the ability of the Iraqis to prevent the United States from accomplishing its war aims, in other words defeat them and occupy their country. That capability is practically nothing, in my opinion, either at the present level of force the coalition has available, or at the new level of force they'll have when these yesterday-announced deployments arrive in the theater. I just don't think they have a chance to do that at all.
On the other hand...
BLITZER: So you are basically saying, as far as the military situation, it's a cakewalk?
LANG: Well, no. Because on the other hand, I think you have to concern yourself about the possibility that somewhere you'll spread yourself too thin, and present an inviting target to some local commander who decides that this is his day of glory, and in particular, the idea of spreading airborne troops all across the north and the oil fields worries me because if there isn't a rapid ground link up with armored forces, these guys are quite vulnerable.
BLITZER: What about concentrating tens of thousands -- more than 100,000 U.S. troops in northern Kuwait in a relatively small area?
LANG: It appears to me that force protection measures there are very tight. They've got the Kuwaiti army up on the border in great strength. They have very heavy standing air patrols over southern Iraq, and they have been going around punching out with air strikes surface-to-surface Iraqi missiles they have been foolish enough to move into the area the last two weeks to make sure that won't happen.
Another possibility that worries me about this is in case some of these units withdraw to Baghdad before the war starts, because they won't be able to move after the war starts.
BLITZER: The elite Republican Guard units?
LANG: Whatever units that choose to do that, and they dig in and put air defense guns over themselves, they could present us with the political problem of having to take the city in a rough fight, or besiege the city, which could be very difficult politically.
BLITZER: Some Iraqi troops, commanders, will give up right away, but others, you believe, will fight to the death?
LANG: I think there's no way to know. My advice to everybody who will listen to me has been that when the coalition goes in, we should look as big and mean and tough and noisy as possible. Lots of flash, bang, and shock and all, and your chances are very good that lots of these guys will lay down their arms, and in fact change sides. Will some of them fight to the end? Maybe not, but maybe a few will, especially if you present an attractive target.
BLITZER: What is the likelihood that the Iraqi generals will, in fact, order biological or chemical warfare to be used against U.S. troops?
LANG: I don't really think it's very high. They had the discretionary orders to do this last time out, in the previous gulf war, and had uploaded a bunch of munitions and chose not to do it, in spite of the fact they were defeated utterly. And they know now and have been told that if they do that this time, they personally are going to be tried as war criminals. That is a big disincentive.
BLITZER: Pat Lang, as usual, thanks very much.
LANG: My pleasure.
BLITZER: Appreciate it very much.
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