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CNN SHOWDOWN: IRAQ
'Sound Off'
Aired March 10, 2003 - 12:41 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: You've heard about it often enough, Iraq disarm or a coalition of the willing will do it for you. President Bush is also talking about regime change in Baghdad. But is that what people of the region actually want?
Sounding off right now, from New York, Fawaz Gergez. He is the author of "Islamists and the West," and here in Washington, Georgetown professor and Middle East expert Rob Sobhani. Thanks to both of you for joining us.
Rob, what will be the fallout in the Muslim world and the Arab world if the U.S. and its so-called coalition of the willing go in and win a relatively quick war in Iraq?
ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIV.: Wolf, if it's a quick war in Iraq, there will certainly be uprising in Iraq against Saddam Hussein, and I believe it will have a positive impact within the Muslim Middle East in the countries like Iran, where there are dictatorships, and countries like Syria, where there's a dictatorship. The people in the region will welcome the liberation of Iraq. I think it will have an enormously positive impact through the Muslim world.
BLITZER: Fawaz, what do you say?
FAWAZ GERGEZ, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Well, Wolf, one point must be made very clear. This is one of the few wars against that there is unanimous Arab and Muslim opposition. In fact, with the exception of one or two states, most of the Arab states do not support this war, even though they would like to get rid of Saddam Hussein.
And more importantly, I think there is a great deal of public dissent and opposition to the coming war throughout Arabs and Muslim lands.
And let me make the argument very clear, regardless of the outcome of this war, I think a war with Iraq will deepen the sense of victimization and humiliation felt by Arab youth and make them a fertile ground for recruitment by militant causes like Osama bin Laden.
In fact, I would argue that the pool of recruits for militant elements would expand, not contract, and in this particular sense, the war would likely make America more vulnerable and less secure as some officials in Washington would like us to believe.
BLITZER: That's a dire assessment, Rob. I don't think you necessarily agree with that assessment. SOBHANI: No, I believe that Victims that Fawaz is talking about are victims of their own governments, their the victims of the lack of democracy, lack of economic transparency, lack of jobs within their own countries. If Egyptian youth are unsatisfied, if Saudi youth are unsatisfied, it's because their governments are not providing the socioeconomic answers to their problems. Freedom in Iraq...
BLITZER: One at a time go ahead -- let Rob finish his thought.
SOBHANI: The fact of the matter is that democracy can be implanted, can be brought into the Muslim world. There's no reason why freedom can be in Eastern Europe, but it cannot in the Muslim Middle East.
BLITZER: All right, go ahead, Fawaz.
GERGEZ: Wolf, the question really is not whether Arabs and Muslims would like to get rid of Saddam Hussein. Of course they do. He is a bloody tyrant. He has decimated his country.
But the question is, what are the most effective means to help Iraqis to liberate themselves? And as you know, the American narrative, our narrative is not really being bought in that part of the world. In this particular sense, there's a high risk that the political reconstruction of Iraq would not happen. There's a high risk that Iraq would fracture and descend into chaos. And in this particular sense, the potential risks inherit in a unilateral campaign outweigh in fact outweigh the benefits not only to American security concerns, but to regional stability and Iraq's future as well.
BLITZER: And that point is echoed by a viewer in an e-mail, Rob. Let me read it to you, and then we'll get you to respond to Will in Tulsa, Oklahoma, who writes, "The fact remains that resolution 1441 is a U.N. resolution, not a U.S. resolution. The U.S. has no business resolving the situation in Iraq or imposing regime change on that country. Change of that nature must be initiated by the Iraqi people themselves."
Go ahead, Rob.
SOBHANI: Wolf, the Iraqi people have no means to change their government. The Iraqi people are being brutalized by Saddam Hussein. You need a superpower like the United States to come in and do the job for the Iraqi people, and then, yes, absolutely, leave the job of building an Iraq for the Iraqis to the Iraqi people. But we need to help them, we need to give them a lending hand. And that's why the role of the United States foreign policy after September 11th should be to support Democratic moves throughout the world. But we need to get rid of the guys on the top, such as Saddam Hussein, and let the people of those countries build their countries the way they see fit.
BLITZER: Fawaz, are you suggesting that the U.S. could find itself in an awful quagmire along the lines of Vietnam?
GERGEZ: That's not really the danger. The danger lies somewhere else in sowing the seeds of further instability and extremism in the region. The dominant feeling in Washington is that the coming war would topple Saddam Hussein, would empower the liberal voices. My fear is that this particular war will empower some of the most reactionary forces in that part of the world.
And the big question is, Wolf, on the table, how do you effect change? Do you effect change using American tanks and airplanes, or do you effect change by using different, more complex techniques, by building international...
BLITZER: Fawaz, give me an example, what are the other techniques?
GERGEZ: Why not try to help civil societies? Why not try to invest in creating an international coalition, a genuine international coalition, one that includes as many Arab and Muslim states as possible? Why the rush to war? Why does the military timetable dictate the administration's foreign policy? Why not invest in diplomacy? These are the questions right now.
BLITZER: I think those are all fair points, excellent points. I'm going to give you the final word, Rob. Go ahead.
SOBHANI: Wolf, diplomacy hasn't worked with Saddam. The opportunity cost of Saddam Hussein to the Iraqi people is staggering. There is no reason why Iraqis, who are one of the most intelligent people in the Arab world, can't build a modern democratic Iraq for themselves. We've got to liberate them and let them rebuild Iraq.
BLITZER: We're going to have to leave it right there. Rob Sobhani, thanks very much. Fawaz Gergez, thanks to you as well. We'll continue this discussion, if you'll both come back, and I hope you will. Thanks very much.
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