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CNN SHOWDOWN: IRAQ
Trying to Understand Saddam Hussein
Aired March 19, 2003 - 12:38 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Saddam Hussein has, of course, ruled his country with an iron fist since 1979. He's never been easy to read or to understand, and as far as a war that is approaching, let's try to figure out a little bit what may be going on inside his head.
We'll try to do that with Simon Henderson. He's the author of "Instant Empire: Saddam Hussein's Ambition for Iraq." He joins us now live from London.
Simon, thank you very much for joining us. Before we talk about what's going on in Saddam Hussein's mind, Tariq Aziz, many viewers remember him from the first Gulf War a dozen years ago when he was then Iraq's foreign minister. Now he's the deputy prime minister. When you heard these rumors earlier today swirling that he might have defected or been killed, what went through your mind knowing this man as you do?
SIMON HENDERSON, AUTHOR, "INSTANT EMPIRE: SADDAM HUSSEIN'S AMBITION FOR IRAQ: Well, I would be very surprised if he had defected. There has been a rumor. I heard it a couple of weeks ago when somebody told me that there's a rumor that Tariq Aziz is about to defect. And I said, I'll believe it when I see it. And it looks as though the rumor was swirling around so much that it eventually popped out into the public domain before it had actually happened.
Frankly, Tariq Aziz is so much associated with Saddam Hussein that it's very unlikely he would defect. He has a unique position in Saddam's ruling clique. He is, nominally at least a Christian, and therefore, for the Christian minority in Iraq, which is roughly 5 percent of the population, he's their representative in Baghdad. And there are many of these Christians who have trusted positions in the regime, and so if Tariq Aziz had defected, it would suggest there is problems in the regime. The fact that he hasn't defected is probably a reflection of the fact that he in the dirty dozen. He's as guilty of arguably war crimes as anybody else. He was very involved in the invasion of Iran. He was very involved in the invasion of Kuwait. This sense that he's a cosmopolitan smooth, fluent-English speaking, cigar smoking nice guy is entirely false. He's perhaps not of a particular thuggish demeanor himself, but he's not a nice guy.
BLITZER: And he's certainly not the only Christian in a senior position. Naji Sabri, the foreign minister of Iraq, who appeared yesterday on television in Iraq dressed in military uniform, also a Christian, underscoring not only the point you made about Tariq Aziz, but the secular nature of the Ba'ath Party, the Iraqi regime.
Let's talk a little bit about Saddam Hussein right now. The pressure's on him, incredible pressure. Is there any chance, even at this late second, that he might yet accept an offer, the most recent offer coming from the king of Bahrain, to go ahead and defect, to leave, to go into exile, to leave Iraq and avert a war?
HENDERSON: Well, he's rejected it. To my mind there's always a small fraction of his mind which would potentially make use of this offer, because it has with it not only does he survive, but it means sometime in the future he might be able to put himself forward a the salvation of Iraq in some future political crisis. Saddam identifies himself completely with Iraq. Not only the Iraq of today, but the Iraq of history, and indeed the Iraq of the future. He sees it as a very important country in the Middle East, potentially in the world, although he's very clueless about the world, very untraveled. And so I'm not sure whether he's decided this is the time to -- this is the end of the Saddam Hussein episode, and if he can bring some further life into it, he would by going into exile.
BLITZER: If he assumed that the two choices either were to die in Baghdad or to live in exile someplace, whether in Ukraine or Bahrain or Libya, or someplace outside of Iraq, you're thinking there's a chance he might decide to leave, is that what you're saying?
HENDERSON: I'm saying that there's a small, what I would say a 5 percent chance. So I wouldn't be totally surprised if he left, but I would be mainly surprised. I think his view of himself in Iraqi history, is that he will go down fighting in the name of Iraq as a great Arab leader.
But I think he has a short-term plan, because I think he's misreading things and thinks he's got some short-term options. His short-term plan is to fight in Baghdad, defending an Arab capital -- Baghdad is a very famous Arab capital -- against an American aggressor. If he can also have some success in that fight, a few dead American soldiers or some crashed aircraft or some destroyed tanks, then he appears even greater, a greater Arab leader, a greater Iraqi leader. And of course, if he was able -- and this is where it gets dangerous, but we have to be allied to this possibility. If he was able to throw chemical weapons or biological weapons by missile at Israel, this would again go down, as far as he's concerned, very well in his history book.
BLITZER: Well, on that point, a dozen years ago, during the first Gulf War, there were widespread reports that he had loaded chemical, biological weapons into artillery shells, but never used them, fearing the United States would respond perhaps with a nuclear weapon. This time around, there's a fear that if he has nothing to lose, he'll go ahead and order these kinds of weapons of mass destruction, assuming of course he has these kinds of weapons. If it comes down to a war, what do you think, having studied this man for so many years, what do you think he'll do as far as the commander the order he will give?
HENDERSON: I fear that he will give an order to use these weapons rather than lose the opportunity to use them. I assume he has them. I have no particular intelligence to confirm that he has. But I -- from what I've studied of the man, I would be very surprised if he hasn't retained at least a few, and I'm sure that he would be determined to use them if he thought the end was nigh. He's a very dangerous man in this respect.
And also, although we tend to see them as doomsday weapons, the very last cards to play, frankly, I believe that he would use them as part of a normal battlefield arsenal if he thought he could get away with it.
BLITZER: Simon Henderson is the author of "Instant Empire: Saddam Hussein Hussein's Ambition for Iraq," a biographer of the Iraqi leader.
Simon Henderson, thanks very much for your insight.
Now I want to go to Baghdad, CNN's Nic Robertson is joining us live from Baghdad now. He's on the phone.
Nic, Tariq Aziz, the deputy prime minister, as you well know, just appearing on the El-Arabia (ph) Television network, the Arabic- language station based in Dubai. What do you make of all these late- breaking developments only hours before the deadline for the ultimatum is approaching?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, what is very, very interesting here is the speed with which Tariq Aziz came and appeared on El-Arabia (ph), and therefore, international television. It has only just been reported on CNN's international service barely an hour before that these rumors about Tariq Aziz, defecting and going to join the Kurds in the north.
Appearing so quickly after that, it's very clear that at this time the Iraqi government really wants to stomp out any rumors like that. Tariq Aziz saying this is a psychological war. We've heard this many times from other Iraqi officials. They believe they are being put under incredible psychological pressure. There have been other rumors circulating in Baghdad today, such as the fact that forces in Basra may already be defecting.
It is just these sort are rumors that the Iraqi government wants to stamp out at this time.
Very interesting as well. Tariq Aziz saying there was no chance of a political solution as far as he could see, saying that it would be a bloody war that would take a long time.
What we have heard today and in the last few days from Iraqi officials, trying to put their view across. Their view has been, and we heard this from the information minister Mohammed al-Sahaf earlier in the day, saying that the war would not be easily won, that U.S. and British forces have been lied to by their commanders, and they should come in with their eyes open, and that the stories that their advancement and military campaign will be a picnic, they said were absolutely not true.
So very much the Iraqi government here recognizing that the true psychological nature of having support within their own country undermined by rumors like this seeing and knowing how damaging this could be, coming out very quickly to put down these rumors at this time -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Nic, it's very impressive the way the Iraqis responded quickly. They're obviously very sophisticated, they're very aware of what's moving in the news organizations, the wire services, the speed of this international communications. It seems like they're still very cohesive in Baghdad.
But give us a little flavor of the mood now on the streets only hours before President Bush's deadline, the ultimatum given to Saddam Hussein is about to take place.
ROBERTSON: Well, Wolf, if I can just give you one more example, because I think that it's a very good point that you make, that at this time, they still appear to be very cohesive, that they're here in Baghdad, able to respond very quickly. We saw this a few days ago when there was that report about the two U-2 aircraft coming into Iraq. AS soon as it hit international news services, the two U-2s come into Iraqi airspace, and there had been a possibility that Iraqi aircraft had threatened them, within minutes, Iraqi officials coming out, denying it, saying it hadn't threatened those aircraft. The same situation today, absolutely, very well wired into international news service, knowing that this is an immense too. They have said this for many years, that the international news organization are an immense tool that is being used against them.
They believe that very many of the American organizations are an extension of the U.S. government, and that they -- by that extension, they're being used against the Iraqi people.
The Iraqi people on the streets today not only showing up in number. People staying away from the streets in many case. Indeed not much need for them to come out unless they have any last-minute emergency supplies to buy. The reason being, most of the stores here already shuttered up, windows taped up, metal shutters pulled across the windows. The streets, the main street in Baghdad that normally takes you 20 minutes to drive down, absolutely sailed down that street today, Wolf. No traffic at all, nothing like it would be on a normal day -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Nic Robertson in Baghdad. A courageous journalist. To you and all our colleagues in Baghdad, good luck. We'll be speaking to you, obviously, in the coming hours and days. Nic Robertson, our man in Baghdad. He's been doing a remarkable job for us and for all of our viewers around the world. I must say we're proud to have him on the scene for us.
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